Friday, 13 August 2010

Apa itu risk?

Risk is defined by permutation, combination, event,probability, frequency, chance, likelihood, personal probability, Bayesian probability, random variable, variate, expectation, random process, stochastic process, sample space, population, probability distribution function, probability density function, probability mass function, spectral density function, moments of random variable, normal distribution, binomial distribution, geometric distribution, statistical analysis, statistic, confidence, skewness, kurtosis, covariance, correlation etc.

We managed to come out with methods to calculate a percentage of an event to happen. (say a car crash, anak bulan, or pope becomes a father.)

example1 : A car that installed our product when speeding at 140km/h have 20% chances of skidding.
example2 : A car that installed our product when speeding at 140km/h have 50% chances of skidding.

the question is whether the event/accident will happen or not happen.

does it looks like chances of everything to happen is 50-50 regardless of the calculated percentage?

or am i alone?


gg said...

well.. no. some situations, some things are more likely to happen than not. like, put fish in front of a cat that likes to eat fish.. and the cat is very much likely to eat the fish than to just walk away. that's not 50-50 anymore now is it?

Syed Ali Rabbani said...

more likely doesnt mean it will 100% happen. true higher percentage will increase the potential or likelihood of an event to happen. but it boils down to whether it will happen or not.

eg: in a bowl there're 80 blue colored balls and 20 red colored balls. so the chances to get blue colored ball is 80 % and 20% for the red one. so more likely you'll get 4 blue balls out of 5 picks. (correct me if im wrong, my math sucks) so each time u pick the ball it's either you get blue ball or red ball although the chances of getting blue ball is very much higher.

looks still 50-50 to me. =(maybe this is why i almost failed my risk and probability subject =(