Friday, 13 August 2010

Apa itu risk?

Risk is defined by permutation, combination, event,probability, frequency, chance, likelihood, personal probability, Bayesian probability, random variable, variate, expectation, random process, stochastic process, sample space, population, probability distribution function, probability density function, probability mass function, spectral density function, moments of random variable, normal distribution, binomial distribution, geometric distribution, statistical analysis, statistic, confidence, skewness, kurtosis, covariance, correlation etc.

We managed to come out with methods to calculate a percentage of an event to happen. (say a car crash, anak bulan, or pope becomes a father.)

example1 : A car that installed our product when speeding at 140km/h have 20% chances of skidding.
example2 : A car that installed our product when speeding at 140km/h have 50% chances of skidding.

the question is whether the event/accident will happen or not happen.

does it looks like chances of everything to happen is 50-50 regardless of the calculated percentage?

or am i alone?